Africa on the Frontlines: What Record-Breaking Global Temperatures Mean for the Continent
Written By Maxine Ansah
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The world is on track to continue experiencing record-breaking temperatures over the next five years. This trend carries far-reaching consequences for people, economies and ecosystems. According to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the likelihood that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024, currently the hottest year ever recorded, is 80 percent. Even more concerning is the 86 percent chance that at least one year in this period will see global temperatures rise more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
For Africa, a continent already deeply vulnerable to climate change, this forecast raises serious alarms. While global warming is a shared challenge, its impacts are uneven. Africa is responsible for a mere fraction of global greenhouse gas emissions. However, it often bears the brunt of climate-related disasters such as droughts, floods, food insecurity and displacement.
What the science says
The WMO’s decadal climate update, produced with contributions from the UK’s Met Office, presents a grim picture. Global mean near-surface temperatures between 2025 and 2029 are predicted to be 1.2°C to 1.9°C above the 1850 to 1900 average. There is also a 70 percent probability that the five-year average will exceed the 1.5°C threshold set as a critical limit under the Paris Agreement.
These are not just numbers; every fraction of a degree of warming increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. The WMO warns that the consequences include more destructive heatwaves, intense rainfall, longer droughts, shrinking glaciers and rising sea levels. Arctic temperatures are projected to rise at more than three times the global average. Sea ice continues to decline.
The 1.5°C mark is not a target for a single year but a long-term average. Yet, even temporary exceedances, which are now increasingly likely, put ecosystems and communities at heightened risk. The WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 report has already confirmed that 2024 was likely the first calendar year with an average temperature 1.55°C above the pre-industrial level.
Africa’s rising climate vulnerability
Africa is already feeling the heat. The Sahel region, spanning from Senegal to Sudan, is predicted to become wetter between May and September from 2025 to 2029. This pattern may bring short-term relief from drought but could also lead to flooding and soil degradation. Meanwhile, other regions such as East and Southern Africa are expected to experience more frequent and intense dry spells. These conditions threaten food production and water supplies.
In countries like Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, prolonged droughts have already displaced millions and triggered humanitarian emergencies. Rising temperatures can further exacerbate these conditions by reducing rainfall reliability and shrinking water resources. Crop failures, livestock deaths and water shortages could become more frequent. These developments undermine efforts to build food security and economic stability.
On the other hand, wetter conditions in parts of West Africa may not be entirely beneficial. Excess rainfall can contribute to the spread of waterborne diseases, damage infrastructure and disrupt farming schedules. Without adequate adaptation strategies, even increased rainfall can have damaging effects.
The WMO also notes ongoing changes in ocean conditions. Warming oceans contribute to sea level rise and stronger storms. These developments threaten Africa’s coastal cities such as Lagos, Abidjan and Dar es Salaam. Coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion and flooding will likely become more severe unless significant investments are made in resilient infrastructure and early warning systems.
A call for urgent climate action
Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General of the WMO, emphasised the urgency of the situation: “We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years. This means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet.”
Barrett added that continued climate monitoring and prediction are essential for providing decision-makers with science-based tools to support adaptation and mitigation. As Africa continues to urbanise and industrialise, integrating climate science into national development plans is not optional. It is essential.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) supports these findings. The average global temperature for 2015 to 2034 is expected to reach around 1.44°C above the pre-industrial baseline. This projection underlines the need for bold commitments at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP30). At this meeting, countries will present updated climate action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Africa must lead; the world must support
Despite contributing the least to the climate crisis, African nations have shown leadership in pushing for climate justice. Initiatives such as the Africa Climate Summit and the Africa Adaptation Acceleration Program highlight the continent’s readiness to act. However, financing remains a barrier. According to the African Development Bank, the continent needs up to 1.6 trillion US dollars by 2030 to meet its climate goals. Yet, climate finance flows to Africa remain woefully inadequate.
If the world is to avoid the worst-case scenarios, it must invest in Africa’s capacity to adapt and thrive in a warming world. This includes funding clean energy, building climate-resilient infrastructure, supporting early warning systems and strengthening communities’ ability to cope with climate shocks.
Africa’s future and that of the world depends on how seriously we heed these warnings. The next five years may be the hottest yet. They can also be the most decisive.
