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The African Development Bank (AfDB) has revised Africa’s 2025 economic growth forecast downward from an earlier projection of 4.1% to 3.9%, citing growing uncertainties in global trade, escalating tariff disputes, and a challenging geopolitical environment. This new outlook was released during the Bank’s 2025 Annual Meetings held in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, as part of its flagship African Economic Outlook report. Although the new forecast still reflects a rebound from the estimated 3.3% growth for 2024, the downward revision signals increasing concerns over the continent’s exposure to external shocks.
According to the AfDB, global trade tensions exacerbated by protectionist policies in major economies, supply chain disruptions, and volatility in commodity prices pose a significant threat to Africa’s economic momentum. The impact is particularly concerning for countries heavily reliant on exports, as fluctuating demand and unpredictable trade barriers have weakened investment confidence and slowed industrial output in several regions.
Despite the more cautious forecast, the Bank expressed optimism over Africa’s medium-term prospects. The report identifies 21 African countries expected to grow above 5% in 2025, with top performers including Niger, Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Senegal all projected to exceed 7% growth. These countries are benefiting from strong public investment in infrastructure, favorable agricultural seasons, and improving political stability. Such high growth rates, the Bank notes, are critical for achieving poverty reduction, job creation, and inclusive development.
Regionally, East Africa is set to remain the fastest-growing area, with an average growth rate of 5.9% in both 2025 and 2026. This performance is largely driven by the robust economies of Ethiopia, Rwanda, Kenya, and Tanzania. West Africa follows closely with a projected growth of 4.3%, supported by significant investments in oil and gas projects, particularly in Senegal and Niger. In contrast, Central Africa’s growth is expected to slow to 3.2%, down from earlier projections, due to weak diversification and challenges in managing resource wealth. Southern Africa remains the region of greatest concern, with a modest 2.2% projected growth in 2025, largely dragged down by South Africa, which is only expected to grow at 0.8% amid ongoing power shortages, policy uncertainty, and high unemployment.
The AfDB emphasized that while global conditions are difficult, Africa’s growth potential remains resilient. To navigate external risks and sustain momentum, the Bank recommends deeper structural reforms, prudent fiscal management, and a renewed focus on boosting intra-African trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Greater investment in technology, green energy, and human capital development are also seen as critical to transforming the continent’s economic landscape.
The report also underscores the importance of creating fiscal space and improving debt sustainability, especially in countries at risk of debt distress. With interest rates still high in global markets and access to international finance tightening, the AfDB warns that without strong economic governance, some countries may face financial instability.
Ultimately, the Bank’s revised forecast serves as a wake-up call for African policymakers to strengthen domestic resilience against global headwinds. While the continent is showing signs of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical disruptions, it must do more to shield itself from external shocks by diversifying exports, reducing reliance on volatile commodities, and investing in long-term development.
As Africa stands at a crossroads, the AfDB’s report reinforces the need for bold, forward-thinking leadership to unlock the continent’s economic promise and ensure that growth is inclusive, sustainable, and capable of withstanding the pressures of an increasingly unpredictable global economy.
